Alun Cairns & St Athan Option

Alun Cairns wrote the St Athan option would save the taxpayer £500m over 30 years (MP’s column Barry & District News, September 23), but can’t give any evidence.  In fact, the £500m figure was first given by Metrix.  All evidence from the £3bn rise since Feb. 2008 or £2bn rise since Sept. 2008 is that the Metrix price is now a £bn or two higher than the MoD’s internal option.

• Alun wrote he believes the PFI has good military reasons.  Yet no-one can say what the training needs will be until the defence review is completed.  There are good reasons for NOT signing up to a contract when amounts and types of training will change substantially.   Training courses will be disrupted by the move, partly because staff will take redundancy rather than transfer. 
• Alun like most other Welsh politicians claim it’s highly important economically for Wales.  Yet it’s been highly exaggerated.  It’s a small College (2000-2500 places) and less investment than Cardiff’s new shopping development.  The adjacent aerospace development (the Minister wrongly claimed 'synergy') has collapsed, with firms foced to relocate on the site deciding instead to move elsewhere.
•  Politicians claim ‘overwhelming’ support from Welsh people.  Yet many local people are critical and the public inquiry showed well-argued cases for changes. 
• Alun will take along Cllr Jeffrey James, who got a lot of criticism for railroading the project through Committee.  As Chairman Cllr James organised a presentation just before the formal Planning Committee from which objectors were excluded, then pushed the Committee to a quick vote ('Rubber stamped' reported the Glamorgan Gem) without considering the alternatives proposed by local residents and Community Councils.

Like other mega PFIs in Defence procurement, this one will be shown to be excessively costly.  There is now momentum for integrating training across the services – savings will go ahead once Metrix withdraws.  Like the BBC’s informant, we see that St Athan may still have a role but “not the gargantuan PFI. And Peter Collins and BBC please stop repeating the lie that there will be 5,000 jobs.

Metrix Mouthpiece

Metrix mouthpiece = article fronted by Sion Barry in the Western Mail of 27 August St Athan defence college would be good for Wales – and UK taxpayers Aug 27 2010 by Sion Barry,

 Numbers of Trainees.....Metrix has been briefing MPs on 20,000 trainees per year, as the trainee places have shrunk from 6000 to 2700.  Thus courses shortened to 5 or 6 weeks average.  The Western Mail equates 20,000 short-term stayers to a town like Risca, but a large Butlins holiday camp is a better analogy.  Like at Butlins most of the food and other supplies come from far away, and most of the leisure activities are on-site, while employment for locals is in cleaning, security and maintenance.

 Value for Money

Metrix mouthpiece says “inflation has pushed the cost of the project slightly northwards” instead of 30% upwards, to still claim £500M saving over the alternative.  There is no updated financial assessment – the Minister gave £400M more to use the Cosford, Blandford and Gosport sites, with upgraded facilities (2008 Private Eye). Now, with reduced numbers, only two sites would be needed and their cost has inflated perhaps by 10%, so could be £1500-2000M cheaper. The saving through some “1000 military personnel being released back to active duties” comes under any integrated training option (the MoD says 1200 saving).

 

What alternative ?

Metrix mouthpiece says “the upkeep of its aging existing facilities across nine sites”, but the specialist ‘Package 2’ training is remaining within MoD, while the ‘Package 1’ affects 9 sites and allows 2 to be vacated.  Depending on the forces reductions in the Defence Review, Package 1 training would be accommodated on one or both of Cosford or Blandford, plus Gosport Navy training that is to be retained till 2020 or longer in all options.

 

What prospects for WAG’s Aerospace Business Park ?

Metrix mouthpiece says it is hoped “to leverage significant investment from its close proximity to the college – a gross value added of more than £500m annually would be generated”.  This is repetition of the WDA’s failed speculations.  They used to claim “synergy” with DARA, then “complementary” to the Training College , and here only ‘proximity’.  

… aerospace in recession;   no longer in favour with WAG’s low carbon transition.